2016

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20/10/2016 - 21/10/2016

Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Bank for International Settlements Joint Conference on Asia-Pacific Economies

The Resilience of the Regional Economies in a Turbulent Global Environment

20 October 2016 (Thursday) - 21 October 2016 (Friday)

Auditorium, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

Programme

Day 1, 20 October 2016

8:30-9:00

Welcome Coffee

9:00-9:10

Welcome Remarks by Eddie Yue (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

9:10-10:00

Keynote Speech by Changyong Rhee (International Monetary Fund)

keynote_changyong-rhee.pdf

Session 1

Financial imbalances in Asia: How worried should we be?

Compared to the 1990s and many other EMEs, most Asian economies have stronger economic fundamentals and the macroprudential policy measures put in place in recent years should act as a buffer against future shocks. But financial imbalances in the region built up over the past few years remain a source of vulnerability. In particular, corporate credit has been growing very rapidly over the past few years, while household debt in some parts of the region remains elevated. The significant amount of US dollar denominated liabilities in the region also increases the risk that a weakening of regional currencies may put pressures on the repayment ability of borrowers.

• To what extent do these domestic vulnerabilities pose a challenge to the region’s financial stability?
• How well could the region withstand further currency depreciation and sharper capital outflows?

10:00 - 11:15

Chair: Hyun Song Shin (Bank for International Settlements)

Speakers:
Kazumasa Iwata (Japan Center for Economic Research)
Woon Gyu Choi (International Monetary Fund)
Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School)
Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn)

Roundtable Discussion

session-1.zip

11:15-11:45

Coffee Break

Session 2

Capital flows: Are we going to see an eventual reversal of capital flows from the region? How is this going to play out?

Depreciation pressures on Asian currencies intensified early this year along with the global financial market turbulence. In fact, most regional currencies have been weakening against the USD already since mid-2014, well before the US interest rate liftoff. Market sentiment on the EMEs including those in the region deteriorated in early 2016. However, so far only less than 20% of the US$1.7 trillion cumulative capital inflows to emerging Asian economies since 2009 have been unwound.

• Given the unprecedented capital inflows accumulated over recent years, what is the scope for further capital outflows and downward pressure on currencies?
• What are the potential external shocks that could trigger more abrupt capital outflows from the region? Would this result in a disruptive unwinding of financial imbalances in the region?
• How concerned should Asian economies be about the depreciation of their currencies? How important is exchange rate stability in monetary policy making in the region?

11:45-13:00

Chair: Yoga Affandi (Bank Indonesia)

Speakers:
Paul Tucker (Harvard Kennedy School)
Jaturong Jantarangs (Bank of Thailand)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University of California, Berkeley)

Roundtable Discussion

session-2.zip

13:00-14:30

Luncheon Speech (By Invitation)
“Exchange Rate Behavior with Negative Nominal Interest Rates: Some Early Observations”

Andrew K. Rose (University of California, Berkeley)

luncheon-speech_andrew-rose.pdf

Session 3

China: Where are the pressure points?

There have been recent concerns over China’s growth prospect, including risks related to corporate leverage, the property market, banks’ asset quality, shadow banking activities, local government financing, the constraints of monetary and fiscal policies to support growth and the pace of structural reforms on SoEs, especially in the overcapacity sector.

• What are the underlying vulnerabilities in China and what are the implications for China's growth prospect?
• What are the pressure points in China in terms of financial stability?

14:30-15:45

Chair: Patrick D’Arcy (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Speakers:
Yiping Huang (Peking University)
Tao Wang (UBS)
Jun Ma (The People’s Bank of China)

Roundtable Discussion

session-3.zip

15:45-16:15

Coffee Break

Session 4

Spillover of China’s slowdown to the rest of the region: What are the channels?

Given the size of China’s economy and its increasing integration with the global economy and in particular with the rest of the region, the performance of China’s economy would certainly affect those around it. While the direct trade linkages between China and the rest of the region has grown rapidly over the past years, China’s impact on the volatility of global and regional financial markets has also appeared to have increased.

• What are the direct and indirect channels of spillover from China to other Asian economies?
• What is the impact of RMB depreciation on the region’s currencies and how will it affect economic and financial stability in the region?

16:15-17:30

Chair: Sukhdave Singh (Bank Negara Malaysia)

Speakers:
Min Chang (Bank of Korea)
Don Hanna (Guard Capital Management)
Haibin Zhu (JP Morgan)

Roundtable Discussion

session-4.zip

18:00-20:00

Conference Dinner (By Invitation)

Day 2, 21 October 2016

8:30-9:00

Welcome Coffee

Session 5

Is Asia losing its growth momentum? Implications and prospects for potential growth

Many Asian economies have been seeing a slowdown in growth since 2013. Export growth in most regional economies has remained lacklustre despite the stronger recovery of the US economy. While the dependence of the regional economies on China has been increasing rapidly over the past years, China’s economy is now undergoing structural transformation – shifting from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth, and with China’s trade moving up the value chain. These changes in trade pattern would likely have significant implications for the Asian economies.

• To what extent is the growth slowdown cyclical or structural? Is slowing growth but tight labour market in most Asian economies a sign of declining potential growth? Has productivity growth in regional economies slowed in recent years?
• What would changing economic and trade structure in China mean for the rest of the regional economies?
• How far have policymakers committed to structural reforms to boost potential growth in the medium term? What is the way forward?

9:00-10:15

Chair: Lillian Cheung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Speakers:
Junkyu Lee (Asian Development Bank)
Michael Spencer (Deutsche Bank)
Robert Subbaraman (Nomura Singapore Limited)

Roundtable Discussion

session-5.zip

10:15-10:45

Coffee Break

Session 6

Panel discussion: Way Forward

10:45-12:00

Chair: Eddie Yue (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Speakers:
Sukhdave Singh (Bank Negara Malaysia)
Diwa C. Guinigundo (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)
Jacqueline Loh (Monetary Authority of Singapore)
Bernard Hodgetts (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Roundtable Discussion

- End of Conference -

22/09/2016

第十四屆中國內地經濟研討會

香港金融研究中心

第十四屆中國內地經濟研討會

中國內地銀行資產質量及金融穩定研討會

（會議工作語言：普通話）

22 September 2016 (Thursday)

香港中環金融街 8 號國際金融中心二期 56 樓 5601 會議室

會議議程

8:30

早茶

8:50

歡迎致辭

香港金融管理局助理總裁、香港金融研究中心主任張麗玲

9:00

主題演講：中國銀行資產質量及系統性金融風險
演講嘉賓：中國社會科學院金融研究所所長助理楊濤（30分鐘）

0_-.pdf

會議第一部分： (主持人：香港金融研究中心陳紅一）

9:30

專題討論一：商業銀行的資產質量分析
1. 發言題目：資產質量大摸底：預期與真相
演講嘉賓：國泰君安銀行業高級研究員王劍（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

2. 發言題目：財政刺激對銀行資產質量的長期影響
演講嘉賓：香港中文大學經濟系教授宋錚（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

-.zip

11:00 - 11:30

茶歇

11:30

專題討論二：中國內地債務結構及金融穩定
3. 發言題目：中國債務：規模，風險及成因
演講嘉賓：麥格理證券大中華區首席經濟學家胡偉俊（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

4. 發言題目：內地房地產企業負債的風險分析
演講嘉賓：中信証券房地產首席分析師陳聰（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

-.zip

13:00 - 14:00

午宴 (僅限受邀請者)

會議第二部分： (主持人：香港金融研究中心姚兆鋒）

14:00

專題討論三：不良資產處置的經驗及啟示
5. 發言題目：去槓桿路徑與影響分析
演講嘉賓：中國人民銀行研究局訪問學者彭文生（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

6. 發言題目：銀行不良資產處置的案例分析
演講嘉賓：中國民生銀行首席研究員溫彬（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

-.zip

15:30 - 16:00

茶歇

16:00

專題討論四：宏觀審慎監管，匯率波動對銀行業的影響
7. 發言題目：宏觀審慎評估體系對銀行業的影響
演講嘉賓：中國社會科學院金融研究所鄭聯盛（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

8. 發言題目：人民幣匯率前瞻及對銀行資產負債表的影響
演講嘉賓：中銀香港首席經濟學家鄂志寰（30分鐘）

提問及討論（15分鐘）

-.zip

17:30

會議閉幕總結

22/08/2016 - 23/08/2016

Conference on Real Estate and Financial Stability

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research and City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit (GRU)

Conference on Real Estate and Financial Stability

22 August 2016 (Monday) - 23 August 2016 (Tuesday)

(Day 1) City University of Hong Kong, AC3, 14/F, 14-221; (Day 2) HKIMR, Harbour Room, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, Central

Programme

Day 1

22 August, 2016 (Monday)

Venue: City University of Hong Kong, AC3, 14/F, 14-221

8:30 – 8:50am

Registration and Welcome Coffee

8:50 – 9:00am

Opening Remarks

Charles Leung, City University of Hong Kong

Morning Session

Session Chair: Chung-Yi Tse, University of Hong Kong

9:00 – 10:00am

Keynote Speech: Commercial Real Estate and Financial Stability

Timothy Riddiough, University of Wisconsin-Madison

10:00 – 10:30am

Coffee Break

10:30 – 11:20am

Global Liquidity, Leverage, House Prices and Exchange Rates

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Bank of England

11:20-12:10pm

Refining Credit Rating of Individuals from Mortgage Default over the Business Cycle

Guonnan Luo, City University of Hong Kong

12:10 – 1:40pm

Lunch (By invitation only)

Afternoon Session

Session Chair: Fred Kwan, City University of Hong Kong

1:40 – 2:30pm

Flipping in the Housing Market

Chung-Yi Tse, University of Hong Kong

2:30 – 3:20pm

Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China

Ping Wang, Washington University at St. Louis

3:20 – 3:50pm

Coffee Break

3:50 – 4:40pm

The Credit Scoring Channel in the Subprime Conduit Mortgage Market

Jaime Luque, University of Wisconsin-Madison

4:40 – 5:30pm

Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy

Roselyne Joyeux, Macquarie University

6:00pm

Dinner (By invitation only)

Day 2

23 August, 2016 (Tuesday)

Venue: HKIMR, Harbour Room, 56th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, Central

8:30 – 8:50am

Registration and Welcome Coffee

8:50 – 9:00am

Welcoming Remarks

Lillian Cheung, Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) & Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR)

Morning Session

Session Chair: Ilhyock Shim, Bank for International Settlements

9:00 – 10:00am

Keynote Speech: Age, Demographics, and the Demand for Housing, Revisited
Richard Green, University of Southern California

1_richard-green.pdf

10:00 – 10:40am

The Effect of Large Investors on Asset Quality: Evidence from Subprime Mortgage Securities
Kristopher Gerardi, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

2_kristopher-gerardi.pdf

10:40 – 11:00am

Coffee Break

11:00 – 11:40am

A Bayesian Analysis of Hong Kong's Housing Price Dynamics

Tommy Wu, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

11:40 – 12:20pm

What Does the House Price-to-income Ratio Tell Us about the Housing Market Affordability: A Theory and International Evidence
Charles Leung, City University of Hong Kong

4_charles-leung.pdf

12:20 – 1:00pm

The Impacts of Mortgage Regulations on Households' Lifecycle Housing Decisions
Anson Ho, Kansas State University

5_anson-ho.pdf

1:00 – 2:10pm

Lunch (By Invitation only)

Afternoon Session

Session Chair: Matthew Yiu, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

2:10 – 2:50pm

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China
Raphael Lam, International Monetary Fund

6_raphael-lam.pdf

2:50 – 4:30pm

Panel Discussion: Real Estate and Financial Stability: Recent Challenges and Trends
Panel Chair:
Simon Kwan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Panelists:
Lillian Cheung, HKMA & HKIMR
Mayank Kaul, Citibank
Yuichiro Kawaguchi, Waseda University
Frank Packer, Bank for International Settlements

panel-discussion_hkimr-cityu-conference.zip

4:30pm

Closing Remarks

Lillian Cheung, HKMA & HKIMR
Charles Leung, City University of Hong Kong

- End -

04/08/2016

The 14th HKIMR Summer Workshop

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

The 14th HKIMR Summer Workshop

04 August 2016 (Thursday)

Harbour Room, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

Programme

8:40 - 9:00

Registration and Coffee

Chair :

Lillian Cheung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority & Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

9:00 – 9:50

Impact of Large Investors in Distressed Housing Markets
Abdullah Yavas (University of Wisconsin - Madison)

Discussant: Charles Leung (City University of Hong Kong)

paper-1.zip

9:50 – 10:40

The Impact of US Monetary Policy and Other External Shocks on the Hong Kong Economy: A Factor-augmented VAR Approach
Andrew Tsang (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Discussant: Paul Luk (Hong Kong Baptist University)

paper-2.zip

10:40 – 11:00

Coffee Break

11:00 – 11:50

VaR and Stress Test: The Impact of Fat-Tail Risk and Systemic Risk on Capital Requirements of Financial Institutions
Jacky So (University of Macau)

Discussant: Eric Wong (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

paper-3.zip

11:50 – 12:40

Measuring Spillovers between the US and Emerging Markets
Tom Fong (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Discussant: Daniel Law (International Monetary Fund)

paper-4.zip

- End -

17/03/2016 - 18/03/2016

HKUST-Keio-HKIMR Conference on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Keio University and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

HKUST-Keio-HKIMR Conference on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics

17 March 2016 (Thursday) - 18 March 2016 (Friday)

Harbour Room, 56th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, Central (Day 1) ; Room G001, G/F, Lee Shau Kee Business Building, HKUST (Day 2)

Programme

March 17, 2016 (Thursday)

Venue

Harbour Room, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

8:30 - 8:50am

Registration and Welcome Coffee

8:50 - 9:00am

Opening Remarks (Cho-hoi Hui, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Morning Session

Chair: Matthew Yiu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

9:00 - 10:15am

Keynote Speech: “Global Imbalances and Currency Wars at the ZLB”

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University of California-Berkeley)

Discussant: Tomoyuki Nakajima (Kyoto University)

10:15 -10:45am

Coffee Break

10:45 - 11:45am

“Cross-Country Exposures to the Swiss Franc”

Agustin Benetrix (Trinity College Dublin)

11:45 - 12:45pm

“The Shocks Matter: Improving our Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through”

Ida Hjortsoe (Bank of England)

12:45 - 2:00pm

In-house Lunch (By invitation)

Afternoon Session

Chair: David Cook (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

2:00 - 3:15pm

“A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop Economies"

Michael B. Devereux (University of British Columbia)

3:15 - 3:45pm

Coffee Break

3:45 - 4:45pm

“Sustainable International Monetary Policy Cooperation”

Timothy Kam (Australian National University)

4:45 - 5:45pm

“The First Arrow Hitting the Currency Target: A Long-Run Risk Perspective”

Takashi Kano (Hitotsubashi University)

6:00 - 9:00pm

Dinner (By invitation)

March 18, 2016 (Friday)

Venue

Room G001, G/F, Lee Shau Kee Business Building, HKUST

8:00am

Coach to University from TST (Invited speakers and discussants only)

8:45 - 9:15am

Breakfast at Conference Venue

Morning Session

Chair: Ippei Fujiwara (Keio University)

9:15 - 10:30am

Keynote Speech: “Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy”

Fabio Ghironi (University of Washington)

Discussant: Jenny Xu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

10:30 -11:00am

Coffee Break

11:00 - 12:00am

"Economic Fundamentals and Monetary Policy Autonomy"

Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank at Dallas)

12:00 - 2:00pm

Lunch (by special invitation)

Afternoon Session

Chair: Michael B. Devereux (University of British Columbia)

2:00 - 3:00pm

“Monetary and Financial Policies in Emerging Markets”

Gianluca Benigno (London School of Economics)

3:00 - 3:15pm

Coffee Break

3:15 - 4:15pm

“Currency War at the Zero Lower Bound”

Ruy Lama (International Monetary Fund)

4:15 - 5:15pm

“Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound”

David Cook (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

5:30pm

Departure for Dinner (by special invitation)

14/01/2016 - 15/01/2016

Seventh Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Seventh Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

“The Growing Influence of China in the World Economy”

14 January 2016 (Thursday) - 15 January 2016 (Friday)

Room 5608, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

Programme

14 January 2016

8:30 - 9:00

Registration

9:00 - 10:00

Keynote Speech
Yiping Huang (Peking University and the People’s Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee Member)

keynote-speech_yiping-huang_spillovers-of-china-s-monetary-policy-hkma-jan-2016.pdf

10:00 - 10:30

Coffee Break

Morning Session

Chaired by Lillian Cheung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Session 1

Rebalancing and Potential Growth in China

10:30 - 11:30

The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth, and Implications for Potential Growth in China
Cristina Jude* (Banque de France)
Marie Albert (Direction Générale du Trésor)
Cyril Rebillard (International Monetary Fund)

Discussant: Zheng Song (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

paper-1.zip

11:30 - 12:30

How fast can China grow? The Middle Kingdom’s prospects to 2030
Jeannine Bailliu* (Bank of Canada)
Mark Kruger (Bank of Canada)
Argyn Toktamyssov (Bank of Canada)
Wheaton Welbourn (Bank of Canada)

Discussant: James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)

paper-2.zip

12:30 - 13:30

Lunch

Afternoon Session

Chaired by Hongyi Chen (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Session 2

Economic Spillovers from China

13:30 - 14:30

Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Global Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing through Trade and Commodity Price Channels
Ludovic Gauvin* (EconomiX-CNRS & Banque de France)
Cyril Rebillard (International Monetary Fund)

Discussant: Ivan Roberts (Reserve Bank of Australia)

paper-3.zip

14:30 - 15:30

Macroeconomic Consequences of the Real-Financial Nexus: Imbalances and Spillovers Between China and The U.S.
Pierre Siklos* (Wilfrid Laurier University)
Ke Pang (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Discussant: David Cook (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

paper-4.zip

15:30 - 16:00

Coffee Break

Session 3

Global and Regional Influence of RMB

16:00 - 17:00

Is RMB increasingly important? A Network Approach
Yinggang Zhou* (Xiamen University)
Yiming Wang (Xiamen University)

Discussant: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong)

paper-5.zip

17:00 - 18:00

Exchange Rate Regimes and Market Integration: Evidence from the Dynamic Relations between Chinese Renminbi Onshore and Offshore Markets
Zhixiong Zeng* (Monash University)
Xiaoli Wan (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)
Yi Jin (Monash University)
Yuruo Yan (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

Discussant: Matthew Yiu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

paper-6.zip

18:00

Conference Dinner (By invitation only)

15 January 2016

8:30 - 9:00

Registration

Morning Session

Chaired by Matthew Yiu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Session 4

Carry Trade Dynamics and Information Flow between RMB Markets

9:00 - 10:00

Carry Trade Dynamics under Capital Controls: The Case of China
Christopher Balding* (Peking University)
Zhang Xiao (BNP Paribas)

Discussant: Alicia Garcia-Herrero (NATIXIS)

paper-7.zip

10:00 - 11:00

Information Flow between Forward and Spot Markets: Evidence from the Chinese Renminbi
Jian Yang* (University of Colorado Denver)
Jiadong Tong (Nankai University, Tianjin)
Zijun Wang (University of Texas at San Antonio)

Discussant: Frank Song (University of Hong Kong)

paper-8.zip

11:00 - 11:30

Coffee Break

11:30 - 13:00

Panel Discussion - “The Growing Influence of China in the World Economy”
Chair:
Lillian Cheung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Panelists:
Ivan Roberts (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Frank Song (University of Hong Kong)
Tao Wang (UBS)
Feng Zhu (Bank for International Settlements)

panel-discussion.zip

-- End of Conference --

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