2014

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Seminars

12/12/2014

The Fourth Annual Meeting of the Asian Central Banks Watchers Group

Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR)

The Fourth Annual Meeting of the Asian Central Banks Watchers Group

"Internationalisation of the Renminbi: Implications for World Finance"

12 December 2014 (Friday)

Auditorium, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

Programme

CLOSED-DOOR SESSIONS

08:30 – 09:00

REGISTRATION FOR CLOSED-DOOR SESSIONS AND REFRESHMENTS

09:00

MORNING PROGRAMME

Morning Session Chair

Lillian Cheung, Acting Executive Director (Research), HKMA

09:00 – 09:10

WELCOME REMARKS

Eddie Yue, Deputy Chief Executive, HKMA
David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF

09:10 – 10:30

SESSION I: THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF RENMINBI INTERNATIONALISATION FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY

Issues to be discussed

 The world significance of the renminbi
 Global renminbi hot spots and ‘true’ offshore trading centres
 Importance of capital account liberalisation for Chinese economic development
 Linkages between domestic and international financial markets
 China trade volume and the under-utilisation of the renminbi
 Currency internationalisation: best practices from around the world

09:10 – 09:15

Moderator

David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF

09:15 – 09:40

Panel presentation

Frank Packer, Head, Economics & Financial Markets, Asia-Pacific, Bank for International Settlements
Ben Knapen, Permanent Representative to the EU institutions in Brussels, European Investment Bank
Jean-Luc Schneider, Deputy Director, Policy Studies Branch, Economics Department, OECD
Jukka Pihlman, Managing Director, Head, Central Banks & Sovereign Wealth Funds, Standard Chartered

09:40 – 10:30

General discussion

10:30 – 11:00

REFRESHMENT BREAK

11:00 – 12:20

SESSION II: THE ROLE OF THE RENMINBI IN INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT AND OTHER OFFICIAL-SECTOR FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS

Issues to be discussed

 Role of renminbi and other Asian currencies in reserve diversification
 The renminbi and financial globalisation – use in sovereign borrowing and other official-sector transactions
 Move to multi-currency reserve system – historical trends and lessons
 Future of the US dollar and euro in international reserves

11:00 – 11:05

Moderator

Jai Arya, Member of the Board of Directors, OMFIF

11:05 – 11:30

Panel presentation

Chaipat Poonpatpibul, Group Head, Principal Economist, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
Swantje Boulderstone, Senior Reserves Portfolio Manager, Bank of England
Vachira Arromdee, Senior Director, Bank of Thailand
Jeremy Armitage, Senior Managing Director, Asian Head, Sales & Trading and Research, State Street

11:30 – 12:20

General discussion

12:20 – 13:20

WORKING LUNCH

Introduction

David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF

Lunch address: Global imbalances and the need for an international monetary system
William White, Chairman, Economic & Development Review Committee, OECD (Former Economic Adviser & Head, Monetary & Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements)

omfifhongkong.pdf

13:20

AFTERNOON PROGRAMME

Afternoon Session Chair

David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF

13:20 – 14:40

SESSION III: THE RENMINBI’S ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS AND TRADE FINANCING/INVESTMENT

Issues to be discussed

 Renminbi developments in international asset management markets – RQDII & RQFII
 ‘Renminbi-isation’ of energy, commodities, metals markets (including gold)
 Issues for China in driving financial market modernisation including regulatory and supervisory questions, and co-operation with foreign authorities
 Need for more harmonised Asian clearing & settlement procedures to spur Asian financial market integration
 Development of the CIPS system as a competitor/counterparty to SWIFT

13:20 – 13:25

Moderator

Hon Cheung, Managing Director & Regional Director, Official Institutions Group, Asia, State Street Global Advisors

13:25 – 13:50

Panel presentation

Esmond Lee, Executive Director, Financial Infrastructure, HKMA
Au King Lun, Chief Executive Officer, Bank of China (Hong Kong) Asset Management
Orhan Kandar, Deputy Executive Director, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Trevor Lee, Director, Investment Products, Securities and Futures Commission

13:50 – 14:40

General discussion

14:40 – 14:50

REFRESHMENT BREAK

14:50 – 16:10

SESSION IV: RENMINBI INTERNATIONALISATION - FUTURE CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Issues to be discussed

 Future challenges for Chinese authorities: how to prepare problem-solving structures
 China’s lessons learned from transatlantic financial crisis
 Financial and monetary decision-making
 Communication, transparency and institutional reform
 Interactions with global financial markets, including impact of unorthodox monetary policies in the US, Japan and Europe
 Blueprint for China’s policy-making for economic and monetary liberalisation 2015-20

14:50 – 14:55

Moderator

Julia Leung, former Under Secretary, Financial Services, The Treasury, Hong Kong

14:55 – 15:20

Panel presentation

Wensheng Peng, Visiting Fellow, HKIMR E Zhihuan, Deputy General Manager & Head of Economic Research, Bank of China (Hong Kong)
Rachael Hoey, Executive Vice President, Head of Asia, CLS-Group
Stephen Lackey, Chairman, Asia Pacific, BNY Mellon
Liu Li-Gang, Chief Economist, Greater China, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group

15:20 – 16:10

General discussion

16:10 – 16:20

CLOSING REMARKS

David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF

16:20

END OF CLOSED-DOOR SESSIONS

OPEN SESSION

16:50 – 17:00

WELCOME REMARKS AND INTRODUCTION

Lillian Cheung, Acting Executive Director (Research), HKMA

17:00 – 18:00

CHANGES IN CHINA AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ASIA AND THE WORLD

Issues to be discussed

 The world significance of the renminbi
 The valuation of the renminbi
 Moves to make the renminbi widely accepted and freely convertible
 The liberalisation of China’s capital account

17:00 – 17:05

Moderator

David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF

17:05 – 17:20

Panel presentation

Julia Leung, former Under Secretary, Financial Services, The Treasury, Hong Kong
Gary Smith, Head, Sovereign Wealth Funds and Official Institutions, Baring Asset Management
William White, Chairman, Economic Development and Review Committee (EDRC), OECD
Satoru Yamadera, Principal Financial Sector Specialist, Asian Development Bank

17:20 – 18:00

Q&A with audience

18:00 - 18:10

CLOSING REMARKS

David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF

18:10

END OF OPEN SESSION

26/09/2014

第十二屆中國內地經濟研討會

香港金融研究中心

第十二屆中國內地經濟研討會

近距離觀察中國“影子銀行”與金融創新

26 September 2014 (Friday)

香港中環金融街 8 號國際金融中心二期 56 樓 5601 會議室

會議議程

8:30 - 9:00

早茶

9:00 - 9:10

歡迎致辭

何東，香港金融管理局助理總裁

9:10 - 10:40

專題討論一：影子銀行與中國金融改革
1. 發言題目：影子銀行與利率市場化（張霄嶺，華夏基金管理有限公司副總經理）
2. 發言題目：中美影子銀行發展的經濟學分析（王紅林，香港金融研究中心）

提問及討論部分

slides-1.zip

10:40 - 11:10

茶歇

11:10 - 12:40

專題討論二：影子銀行監管與金融創新
1. 發言題目：金融創新與互聯網金融（袁雷鳴，小微金融服務集團（籌）理財事業部總經理）
2. 發言題目：影子銀行與商業銀行金融產品創新（魯政委，興業銀行首席經濟學家）

提問及討論部分

2_2_-.pdf

12:40 - 13:50

午餐時間

13:50 - 15:50

專題討論三：影子銀行與中國金融業發展
1. 發言題目：解碼中國委託貸款（張文朗，香港金融管理局研究部）
2. 發言題目：信託業發展與影子銀行（李暘，用益信託網首席研究員）
3. 發言題目：影子銀行中的銀證合作（邵宇，東方證券首席經濟學家）

提問及討論部分　

slides-3.zip

15:50 - 16:10

茶歇

16:10 - 17:40

專題討論四：影子銀行與實體經濟
1. 發言題目：影子銀行在民營企業融資中的作用　（史晉川，浙江大學經濟學院院長，浙江大學民營經濟研究中心主任）
2. 發言題目：影子銀行與金融消費者保護（孫天琦，中國人民銀行金融消費權益保護局副局長）

提問及討論部分　

4_1_-_-.ppt

17:40

會議閉幕總結

-- 完 --

19/08/2014

The 12th HKIMR Summer Workshop

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

The 12th HKIMR Summer Workshop

19 August 2014 (Tuesday)

Harbour Room, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

Programme

19 August 2014

(Tuesday)

8:30 - 9:00

Registration and Coffee

Chair: Dong He (HKMA and HKIMR)

9:00 – 9:55

How Do Business Cycles become Global? Common Shocks or Spillovers?
Thomas Helbling (International Monetary Fund)
Raju Huidrom (University of Virginia)
Ayhan Kose (International Monetary Fund)
Christopher Otrok* (University of Missouri)

Discussant: David Cook (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

presentation-1.zip

9:55 – 10:50

Asian-Pacific Financial Market Interactions with the U.S. and China: A Structural VAR Approach
Dong He (HKMA and HKIMR)
Chang Shu* (Bank for International Settlements)
Honglin Wang (HKIMR)
Jinyue Dong (BBVA)

Discussant: Christopher Otrok (University of Missouri)

presentation-2.zip

10:50 – 11:10

Coffee Break

11:10 – 12:05

Foreign Bank Subsidiaries' Default Risk during the Global Crisis: What Factors Help Insulate Affiliates from their Parents?
Deniz Anginer (Virginia Tech)
Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund)
Maria Soledad Martinez Peria* (The World Bank)

Discussant: Cho-Hoi Hui (HKMA)

presentation-3.zip

12:05 – 1:00

Network Effects in Currency Internationalisation: Insights from BIS Triennial Surveys and Implications for the Renminbi
Dong He* (HKMA and HKIMR)
Xiangrong Yu* (HKIMR)

Discussant: Torsten Ehlers (Bank for International Settlements)

presentation-4.zip

1:00 – 2:00

Lunch (By Invitation)

- End of Workshop -

23/06/2014

Joint HKIMR-INET-CIGI Conference on China and the World Economy: Trade and Financial Linkages

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, The Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), and Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)

Joint HKIMR-INET-CIGI Conference on China and the World Economy: Trade and Financial Linkages

23 June 2014 (Monday)

Harbour Room, 56th Floor, Two IFC, Central, Hong Kong

Programme

23 June 2014

(Monday)

8:30am – 8:45am

Registration and Welcome Coffee

8:45am – 9:00am

Welcome Remarks

Dong He, Hong Kong Monetary Authority & Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Session I

Chair: Paul Jenkins, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)

9:00am – 10:30am

China’s Global Influence as a Major Trading Nation
Background Presentation:
Larry Qiu, The University of Hong Kong

Discussant: Li Cui, Goldman Sachs

larry-qiu-paper.zip

10:30am – 11:00am

Coffee break

11:00am – 12:30pm

China’s Role in the Global Commodities Market
Background Presentation:
Ivan Roberts, Reserve Bank of Australia
Natasha Cassidy, Reserve Bank of Australia

Discussant: Alicia Garcia-Herrero, BBVA

2d_alicia_latam-commodities.pptx

***************************************************************************

12:30pm – 2:15pm

Luncheon hosted by Norman T.L. Chan

Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Speech on “Global Capital Flows and Regulation of SIFIs” by Adair Turner
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)

Venue: Auditorium, 56th Floor
***************************************************************************

luncheon_adair-turner_china-hong-kong-inet-cigi-hkimr-23-june.pptx

Session II

Chair: Dong He, Hong Kong Monetary Authority & Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

2:15pm – 3:45pm

Interest Rate Liberalization and Monetary Policy Framework in China
Background Presentation:
Wensheng Peng, China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC)

Discussant: Alfred Schipke, International Monetary Fund

wensheng-peng-slides.zip

3:45pm – 4:15pm

Coffee break

4:15pm – 5:45pm

Renminbi internationalization and Capital Account Liberalization
This presentation is later published as a special report on the CIGI website.
(http://www.cigionline.org/publications/chinas-engagement-evolving-international-monetary-system-payments-perspective)

Background Presentation:
Paul Jenkins, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Daniel H. Neilson, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Perry G. Mehrling, Institute for New Economic Thinking & Columbia University

Discussant: Robert McCauley, Bank for International Settlements

presentation-slides.zip

6:00pm – 8:00pm

Conference Dinner (By invitation only)

~ End of Conference ~

20/03/2014 - 21/03/2014

Conference on Domestic and International Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy

Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Conference on Domestic and International Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy

20 March 2014 (Thursday) - 21 March 2014 (Friday)

Room 5601, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

Programme

Thursday, 20 March

1:00 - 1:30

Registration

1:30 - 1:45

Opening Remarks by Norman T.L. Chan, Chief Executive, HKMA

speech.pdf

Session 1

Cross-Border Effects of Unconventional Policies

Chair: Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

1:45 – 2:45

A Global Monetary Tsunami? On the Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing
Marcel Fratzcher (DIW Berlin and Humboldt-University Berlin)
Marco Lo Duca* (European Central Bank)
Roland Straub (European Central Bank)

Discussant: John H. Rogers (Federal Reserve Board)

paper-1.zip

2:45 – 3:45

Global Impact of US Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
Qianying Chen (International Monetary Fund)
Andrew Filardo* (Bank for International Settlements)
Dong He (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
Feng Zhu (Bank for International Settlements)

Discussant: Sylvain Leduc (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

paper-2.zip

3:45 – 4:15

Coffee Break

Session 2

Monetary Policy Implementation and Transmission at the ZLB

Chair: Dong He (HKMA)

4:15 – 5:15

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany
Eric Swanson* (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Discussant: Mico Loretan (Swiss National Bank)

paper-3.zip

5:15 – 6:15

Federal Reserve Tools for Managing Rates and Reserves
Antoine Martin (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
James McAndrews* (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Ali Palida (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
David Skeie (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Discussant: Morten L. Bech (Bank for International Settlements)

paper-4.zip

7:00 – 9:00

Dinner Speech “China’s Growth Outlook, Financial Risks and Reforms” by Jun Ma (Deutsche Bank) (By invitation only)

5_slides_dinner_jun-ma.pptx

Friday, 21 March

8:30 – 9:00

Registration and Coffee

Session 3

Theoretical Perspectives on Liquidity and Financial Markets

Chair: Hans Genberg (The SEACEN Centre)

9:00 – 10:00

Safe Assets, Liquidity and Monetary Policy
Pierpaolo Benigno* (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance and LUISS Guido Carli)
Salvatore Nistico (Sapienza University of Rome)

Discussant: Luca Dedola (European Central Bank)

paper-5.zip

10:00 – 11:00

Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing
Saroj Bhattarai (Pennsylvania State University)
Gauti B. Eggertsson* (Brown University)
Bulat Gafarov (Pennsylvania State University)

Discussant: Andrew Levin (International Monetary Fund)

paper-6.zip

11:00 – 11:30

Coffee Break

11:30 – 12:30

Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy with Endogenous Collateral Constraints
Aloisio Araujo (IMPA and EPGE-FGV)
Susan Schommer (IMPA)
Michael Woodford* (Columbia University)

Discussant: Giancarlo Corsetti (Cambridge University)

paper-7.zip

12:30 – 2:00

Luncheon Hosted by Mr. Norman T.L. Chan (HKMA) and Invited Lecture “Do Central Bank Balance Sheets Matter?” by Prof. Chris Sims (Princeton University) (By Invitation Only)

9_slides_luncheon_chris-sims.pdf

Session 4

Modeling Credit Easing

Chair: Argia Sbordone (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

2:00 – 3:00

Breaking the Spell with Credit-Easing: Self-Confirming Credit Crises in Competitive Search Economies
Gaetano Gaballo* (Banque de France)
Ramon Marimon (European University Institute)

Discussant: Tack Yun (Seoul National University)

paper-8.zip

3:00 – 4:00

(Un) conventional Policy and the Zero Lower Bound
Fiorella De Fiore* (European Central Bank)
Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank)

Discussant: Jinill Kim (Korea University)

paper-9.zip

4:00 – 4:30

Coffee Break

4:30 – 6:00

Panel Discussion:
Moderator: Dong He (HKMA)
Panellists:
Kazuo Momma (Bank of Japan)
Alberto G. Musalem (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Mehmet Yörükoğlu (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

- End of Conference -

panel-discussion.zip

* : Presenter

16/01/2014 - 17/01/2014

Fifth Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR)

Fifth Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

“Price Reforms and Factor Markets Liberalisation in the Chinese Economy”

16 January 2014 (Thursday) - 17 January 2014 (Friday)

Room 5608 (Aduitorium), 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central

Programme

Day 1

Thursday, 16 January 2014

8:45 - 9:15

Registration and Coffee

9:15 - 9:30

Opening Remarks

Dong He (Executive Director (Research) of Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Director of Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Session 1

Chair: Edward Chen (The University of Hong Kong)

9:30 – 10:20

Measuring Bank Competition in China: A Comparison of New Versus Conventional Approaches Applied to Loan Markets
Bing Xu (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
Adrian van Rixtel* (Bank for International Settlements)
Michiel van Leuvensteijn (APG)

Discussant: Chun-Yu Ho (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

adrian-van-rixtel.zip

10:20 – 10:50

Coffee Break

10:50 – 11:40

Interest Rate Determination in China: Past, Present and Future
Dong He (HKMA and HKIMR)
Honglin Wang* (HKIMR)
Xiangrong Yu* (HKIMR)

Discussant: Steven Barnett (International Monetary Fund)

he-wang-yu-paper-and-slides-.zip

11:40 – 12:30

A Model of Chinese Capital Account Liberalisation
Dong He (HKMA and HKIMR)
Paul Luk* (HKIMR)

Discussant: James Yetman (Bank for International Settlements)

dong-he-and-paul-luk.zip

12:30 – 14:00

Lunch

Session 2

Chair: Hongyi Chen (HKIMR)

14:00 - 14:50

Learning from a Puzzle: When Can Stronger Labor Protection Improve Productivity?
Lin Ji (Tsinghua University)
Shang-Jin Wei* (Columbia University)

Discussant: Richard Herd (OECD)

4_shang-jin-wei-revised-.pdf

14:50 – 15:40

Labor Regulation and Manufacturing Employment in China
John Giles (World Bank)
Albert Park* (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Yang Du (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Discussant: Zhigang Tao (The University of Hong Kong)

albert-park.zip

15:40 – 16:10

Coffee Break

Session 3

Chair: Frank Packer (Bank for International Settlements)

16:10 – 17:00

Productivity as if Space Mattered: An Application to Factor Markets across China
Wenya Cheng* (London School of Economics)
John Morrow (Centre for Economic Performance, LSE)
Kitjawat Tacharoen (Centre for Economic Performance, LSE)

Discussant: Kang Shi (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

wenya-cheng.zip

17:00 – 17:50

China’s Economic Transition and the Value of Firms’ Political Connections: A Longitudinal Study of Publicly Listed Firms
Heather A. Haveman* (University of California, Berkeley)
Nan Jia (University of Southern California)
Jing Shi (Australian National University)
Yongxiang Wang (University of Southern California)

Discussant: Joshua Felman (International Monetary Fund)

haveman.zip

18:30 – 20:30

Conference Dinner (By invitation only)

Day 2

Friday, 17 January 2014

8:45 – 9:15

Registration and Coffee

9:15 – 10:05

Keynote Speech: Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China
Zheng Michael Song (University of Chicago)

8_keynote-speech_michael-song-revised-.pdf

Session 4

Chair: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong)

10:05 – 10:55

"One Currency, Two Markets" and the Renminbi’s Growing Influence in Asia-Pacific
Chang Shu* (Bank for International Settlements)
Dong He (HKMA and HKIMR)
Xiaoqiang Cheng (HKMA)

Discussant: Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)

chang-shu-revised-.zip

10:55 – 11:25

Coffee Break

11:25 – 12:30

Panel Discussion: Reform Implementation and Macroeconomic Consequences

10_steven-barne.pptx

Panellists:
Steven Barnett (International Monetary Fund)
Zheng Michael Song (University of Chicago)
Tao Wang (UBS)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)