Bank for International Settlements and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Property Markets and Finance


12 January 2009 (Monday) - 13 January 2009 (Tuesday)



Monday 12 January

08:45 - 09:15 Registration and coffee

09:15 – 09:30 Welcome and opening remarks

Hans Genberg (HKIMR) and Andrew Filardo (BIS)

Session 1: House price dynamics

Chairman: Andrew Filardo
09:30 – 10:15 Paper 1: Eloisa Glindro, Tientip Subhanij, Jessica Szeto and Haibin Zhu
Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies
Discussant: Muhamad Shukri

10:15 – 11:00 Paper 2: Frank Leung, Kevin Chow and Gaofeng Han
Long-term and Short-term Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong
Discussant: Olaf Unteroberdoerster

11:00 – 11:15 Coffee break

11:15 – 12:00 Paper 3: Ming Hwang and John Quigley
Housing Price Dynamics: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns
Discussant: Shangjin Wei

12:00 – 13:30 Lunch

Session 2: Real estate finance

Chairman: Eli Remolona
13:30 – 14:15 Paper 4: Man Cho, Che-Chun Lin and Tyler Yang
Credit Risk of “Exotic” Mortgage Products
Discussant: Luci Ellis

14:15 – 15:00 Paper 5: Yuichiro Kawaguchi
Japan's Real Estate Crisis: What Went Wrong? Why? What lesson can be learned?
Discussant: Charles Leung

15:00 – 15:30 Coffee Break

Session 3: Housing and the real economy

Chairman: Eli Remolona
15:30 – 16:15 Paper 6: Jiro Yoshida
Technology Shocks and Asset Price Dynamics: The Role of Housing in General Equilibrium
Discussant: Eric Girardin

16:15 – 17:00 Paper 7: Ivan Jaccard
Asset Pricing in Home Production Economies
Discussant: David Cook

Tuesday 13 January

Session 4: Impact of monetary policy on housing markets

Chairman: Hans Genberg
09:15 – 10:00 Paper 8: Kuang-Liang Chang, Nan-Kuang Chen, and Charles Leung
Would Some Model Please Give Me Some Hints? An Empirical Investigation on Monetary Policy and Asset Return Dynamics
Discussant: Li Cui

10:00 – 10:45 Paper 9: Lichao Cheng, Yi Jin and Zhixiong Zeng
Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: An Empirical Investigation
Discussant: Andrew Filardo

10:45 – 11:00 Coffee Break

Session 5: Lessons from the US subprime crisis

Chairman: Hans Genberg
11:00 – 11:45 Paper 10: Luci Ellis
The Housing Meltdown: Why did it Happen in the United States?
Discussant: Yuji Yamashita

12:10 – 13:30 Luncheon

Keynote speaker: Susan Wachter (Wharton)
Understanding the Sources and Way Out of the Ongoing Financial Upheaval (ppt)
Understanding the Sources and Way Out of the Ongoing Financial Upheaval (paper)
13:30 – 15:00 Session 6: a high-level panel discussion

Peter Pang (Deputy Chief Executive, HKMA)
David Carbon (Chief Economist, DBS Group)
Ben Cohen (Financial Stability Forum)
John Quigley (UC Berkeley)
15:00 Conference ends