2023

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27/10/2023

The Thirteenth Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research

香港貨幣及金融研究中心

27 October 2023, Friday

2023年10月27日, 星期五

Venue: Auditorium, 56/F, HKMA, Two International Finance Centre, Central, Hong Kong

地點: 香港中環國際金融中心二期56樓香港金融管理局會議室

Programme 會議議程

10:00 – 11:00	Opening Remarks 開幕詞 Enoch FUNG, Chief Executive Officer, Hong Kong Academy of Finance and Executive Director, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research 馮殷諾, 金融學院行政總裁, 香港貨幣及金融研究中心執行主任 Welcoming Remarks 歡迎詞 Eddie YUE, Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 余偉文, 香港金融管理局總裁 Keynote Speech 主旨演講 Economic Outlook of China [Sildes] 中國經濟展望 Yiping HUANG, Sinar Mas Chair Professor of Finance and Economics and Deputy Dean of the National School of Development, Peking University 黃益平, 北京大學國家發展研究院金光金融學與經濟學講席教授、副院長
11:00 – 11:15	Coffee Break 茶歇
11:15 – 12:45	Panel Discussion 專家討論 Recent Developments and Outlook of the Chinese Economy 中國經濟的最新發展及未來走勢 Moderator: Hongyi CHEN, Senior Adviser, HKIMR 主持人: 陳紅一, 香港貨幣及金融研究中心高級顧問 Impact of Supply Chain Adjustment, Outlook of China’s FDI and Export Markets 全球供應鏈調整對中國經濟的影響, 中國的外商直接投資及出口市場的未來走勢 Andrew TILTON, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist and Head of EM Economic Research, Goldman Sachs Andrew TILTON, 高盛亞太區首席經濟學家及全球新興市場經濟研究主管 China’s Japanification Risk 中國經濟陷入1990年代日本式衰退的風險 Haibin ZHU, Chief China Economist, JPMorgan Chase Bank 朱海斌, 摩根大通中國首席經濟學家 China’s Debt Resolution [Slides] 中國的債務化解 Helen QIAO, Chief Greater China Economist, Head of Asia Economics Research, Bank of America 喬虹, 美國銀行大中華首席經濟學家及亞洲經濟研究主管 China’s Potential Growth [Slides] 中國經濟的潛在增長率 Louis KUIJS, Chief Asia Economist, S&P Global Ratings Louis KUIJS, 標準普爾亞太區首席經濟學家 Spillovers from China’s Reopening [Slides] 疫情後中國經濟恢復的外溢效應 Dora XIA, Senior Economist, Bank for International Settlements 夏凡, 國際結算銀行高級經濟學家
12:45 – 14:00	Conference Lunch (By invitation) 午餐 (僅限受邀者)
14:00 – 15:20	Total Factor Productivity Development in the Chinese Economy 中國經濟全要素生產率的發展 Chair: James YETMAN, Principal Economist, Bank for International Settlements 主持人: James YETMAN, 國際結算銀行資深經濟學家 “Where Has All the Dynamism Gone? Productivity Growth in China’s Manufacturing Sector, 1998-2013” “經濟活力去了哪裏? 中國製造業的生產率增長, 1998-2013” [Paper] [Slides] Yifan ZHANG, Professor of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 張軼凡, 香港中文大學經濟學教授 Loren BRANDT, Professor of Economics, University of Toronto Johannes Van BIESEBROECK, Professor of Economics, KU Leuven and CEPR Luhang WANG, Associate Professor of Economics, Xiamen University “China’s Productivity Challenge” “中國經濟全要素生產率面臨的挑戰” Xiaodong ZHU , Professor of Economics, University of Hong Kong 朱曉冬, 香港大學經濟學教授 Q&A問答環節
15:20 – 15:35	Coffee Break 茶歇
15:35 – 16:55	Industrial Policy in China 中國的產業政策 Chair: Guonan MA, Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute 主持人: 馬國南, 亞洲協會政策研究所高級研究員 “China’s Industrial Revolution: A New Perspective” [Slides] “中國的產業革命: 一個新的視角” Yi WEN, Professor in Economics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University 文一, 上海交通大學經濟學教授 “The Railway on the Silk Road: The Effect of China-Europe Railway Express on Manufacturing Geography” [Slides] “新絲綢之路: 中歐班列對製造業分佈的影響” Shuanghe SHANG , PhD Candidate, National School of Development, Peking University 尚雙鶴, 北京大學國家發展研究院博士生 Min WANG, Associate Professor, National School of Development, Peking University Q&A問答環節
16:55 – 17:10	Coffee Break 茶歇
17:10 – 18:30	Green Finance in China 中國的綠色金融發展 Chair: Giorgio VALENTE, Head, HKIMR 主持人: 衛頌飴, 香港貨幣及金融研究中心主管 “The Scale Effect and China’s Green Transition” [Slides] “規模經濟和中國綠色轉型” Yang ZHAO, Managing Director, CICC Global Institute 趙揚, 中金研究院董事總經理 “Strengthen Hong Kong as an International Finance Centre through Close Cooperation in Green Finance in the Greater Bay Area” “緊密依托大灣區綠色金融合作, 鞏固提升香港國際金融中心地位” Yao LEI, Deputy Director-General, Research Institute, the People’s Bank of China 雷曜, 中國人民銀行金融研究所副所長 Haodong FU, Associate Research Fellow, Research Institute, the People’s Bank of China 付昊東, 中國人民銀行金融研究所助理研究員 Q&A問答環節
18:30	Conference dinner (By invitation) 晚宴 (僅限受邀者)

24-25/08/2023

Workshop on “Recent Developments and Future Prospects of the International Monetary System”

Co-organized by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR), ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), European Central Bank (ECB), European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)

Workshop on

“Recent Developments and Future Prospects of the International Monetary System”

August 24-25, 2023, Hong Kong

Co-organized by
Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR)
ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)
European Central Bank (ECB)
European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)

Programme

Workshop summary can be downloaded here.

<Thursday, August 24, 2023>
8:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.	Registration and Welcome Coffee
9:00 a.m. – 9:05 a.m.	*Opening Remarks* Enoch Fung, Chief Executive Officer, The Hong Kong Academy of Finance and Executive Director, HKIMR
9:05 a.m. – 9:15 a.m	*Welcoming Remarks* Eddie Yue, Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
9:15 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.	*Session 1 – Currency Usage for cross-border payments, bank loans and external balance sheets* Chair: Iikka Korhonen, BOFIT “Currency Usage for Cross-Border Payments” [Paper] Longmei Zhang, International Monetary Fund Roshan Iyer, International Monetary Fund Hector Perez-Saiz, International Monetary Fund “Determinants of currency choice in cross-border bank loans” [Paper] Peter McQuade, European Central Bank Lorenz Emter, European Central Bank Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Bank for International Settlements Martin Schmitz, European Central Bank “Currencies of External Balance Sheets”[Slides] Luciana Juvenal, International Monetary Fund Cian Allen, International Monetary Fund Deepali Gautam, International Monetary Fund Discussion and Q&A
11:15 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.	Coffee Break
11:30 a.m. – 1:30 p.m.	*Session 2 - Capital Flow, Exchange Rate and Invoicing Currency Concentration* Chair: Phakawa Jeasakul, International Monetary Fund “Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: A Quantitative Assessment of the Dilemma Hypothesis” [Paper] [Slides] Shangshang Li, University of Oxford Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Bank of England, CEPR, and CfM Andrea Ferrero, University of Oxford, CEPR, and CfM “Granular Banking Flows and Exchange-Rate Dynamics” [Paper] [Slides] Balduin Bippus, University of Cambridge Simon Lloyd, Bank of England and Centre for Macroeconomics Daniel Ostry, Bank of England and Centre for Macroeconomics “Invoicing Currency Concentration and Currency Risk Premia” [Slides] Nick Sander, Bank of Canada Julien Bengui, Bank of Canada and CEPR Discussion and Q&A
1:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.	*In-house Lunch (By invitation)*
2:30 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.	*Session 3 - International Use of Renminbi* Chair: Hans Genberg, Asia School of Business “Renminbi Usage in Cross-Border Payments: Regional Patterns and the Role of Swaps Lines and Offshore Clearing Banks” [Paper] Longmei Zhang, International Monetary Fund Hector Perez-Saiz, International Monetary Fund “The RMB as a trade settlement currency: An exploratory analysis of economic vs institutional determinants” [Slides] Alicia García-Herrero, Natixis Alessia Amighini, ISPI Haoxin Mu, Natixis “Dual Approach for One Goal: The Internationalization of Renminbi during 2010-2021” [Slides] Qing Liu, Tsinghua University Wenlan Luo, Tsinghua University Jiatong Niu, Tsinghua University Discussion and Q&A
4:30 p.m. – 4:45 p.m.	Coffee Break
4:45 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.	*Session 4 - International Roles of Euro and Dollar* Chair: Gergely Hudecz, European Stability Mechanism “The EU’s Response to the COVID-19 Crisis: A Game Changer for the International Role of the Euro?” [Paper] [Slides] Heliodoro Temprano Arroyo, European Commission “Dollar trinity and the Global Financial Cycle” [Slides] Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank Gernot J. Müller, University of Tübingen and CEPR Ben Schumann, Free University of Berlin “Dollar Funding Shortage - A New Database and New Evidence” [Paper] [Slides] Maylin H. Sun, American University, Washington DC Discussion and Q&A
6:30pm	*Conference Dinner (By invitation)*
<Friday, August 25, 2023>
9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.	Policy Panel Panel 1: How to Manage the International Monetary and Financial System in a More Fragmented Geo-Economic World? Chair: Rolf Strauch, European Stability Mechanism Panelists: Linda Goldberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Virtual) [Slides] Fabio Natalucci, International Monetary Fund (Virtual) Chengjun Zhou, The People’s Bank of China (Virtual) Benoit Mojon, Bank for International Settlements Q&A
10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.	Panel 2: Policy Initiatives in a Changing International Monetary System Chair: Arnaud Mehl, European Central Bank Panelists: Dong He, International Monetary Fund (Virtual) [Slides] Kouqing Li, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office [Slides] Saleem Bahaj, UCL Q&A
11:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.	Coffee Break
11:15 a.m. – 12:35 p.m.	*Session 5 - Crypto Assets and their Implications* Chair: Ilhyock Shim, Bank for International Settlements “Crypto Currencies and Banking Sector Connectedness: Don’t Worry, Be Happy . . . for Now” Jorge A. Chan-Lau, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office Toan Long Quach, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office Liyang Tang, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office “The Crypto Cycle and US Monetary Policy” [Paper] [Slides] Alexander Copestake, International Monetary Fund Natasha Che, International Monetary Fund Davide Furceri, International Monetary Fund Tammaro Terracciano, IESE Business School (Barcelona) Discussion and Q&A
12:35 p.m.	Adjourn Conference Lunch (By invitation)

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