2018

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Seminars

28/11/2018 - 29/11/2018

China Expert Network Workshop: “The Chinese Economy in the New Era”

European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Board and Hong Kong Monetary Authority

China Expert Network Workshop: “The Chinese Economy in the New Era”

28 November 2018 (Wednesday) - 29 November 2018 (Thursday)

Harbour Room, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, Central, Hong Kong

Program

28 November 2018

8:30a.m. – 9:00a.m.

Registration and Welcome Coffee

9:00a.m. – 9:10a.m.

Welcome Remarks
Lillian Cheung, Executive Director, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Director, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

9:10a.m. – 10:00a.m.

Keynote Speech: “An Unhealthy Trade Surplus?”
Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University

Q&A

10:00a.m. – 10:20a.m.

Coffee Break

Session 1

Capital Account and Exchange Rate Management
Session Chair:
Lillian Cheung, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

10:20a.m. – 10:35a.m

“China’s Evolving Managed Float: An Exploration of the Roles of the Fix and Broad Dollar Movements in Explaining Daily Exchange Rate Changes”
John Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

10:35a.m. – 10:50a.m.

“Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China”
Mark Spiegel (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

10:50a.m. – 11:05a.m.

“Market-based RMB Exchange Rate Reform As a Systematic Project”
Tao Guan (China Finance 40 Forum)

11:05a.m. – 11:20a.m.

Discussant: Anna Wong (Federal Reserve Board)

11:20a.m. – 12:00n.n.

Roundtable discussion

12:00n.n. – 2:00p.m.

Lunchtime Speech (By invitation)
“China's Prospects under Global Policy Normalization and Implications for Other EMEs”
by Shaghil Ahmed (Federal Reserve Board)

Session 2

Deleveraging and Financial Stability
Session Chair:
Anil Jain (Federal Reserve Board)

2:00p.m. – 2:15p.m.

“The Firm-Bank Nexus and Bank Lending in China?”
Madhusudan Mohanty (Bank for International Settlements)

2:15p.m. – 2:30p.m.

“The Credit Risk of Chinese Households – A Micro-Level Assessment”
Michael Funke (Hamburg University)

2:30p.m. – 2:45p.m.

“Are SOE Reforms in China Going Anywhere? Evidence from Corporate Borrowing Constraints”
John Fu (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

2:45p.m. – 3:00p.m.

Discussant: Hunter Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

3:00p.m. – 3:40p.m.

Roundtable discussion

3:40p.m. – 4:00p.m.

Coffee Break

4:00p.m. – 5:45p.m.

Panel Discussion: US - China Trade Relation
Panel Chair:
Jasper Hoek (Federal Reserve Board)

Panel Discussants:
Yiping Huang (Peking University)
Brad Setser (Council on Foreign Relations)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Bruegel)

Q&A

6:15p.m.

Conference Dinner (By invitation)

29 November 2018

8:30a.m. – 8:45a.m.

Registration and Welcome Coffee

8:45a.m. – 9:25a.m.

Keynote Speech: “China’s Economy towards High-Quality Development: Long term trend and policy implications”
Zhong Xu, The People’s Bank of China

Q&A

9:25a.m. – 9:40a.m.

Coffee Break

Session 3

Long-term Growth and Rebalancing
Session Chair:
Ivan Roberts (Reserve Bank of Australia)

9:40a.m. – 9:55a.m.

“Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China”
Sophia Chen (International Monetary Fund)

9:55a.m. – 10:10a.m.

“What Drives China's Growth? Evidence from Micro-level Data”
Shunichi Yoneyama (Bank of Japan)

10:10a.m. – 10:25a.m.

“The Role of Factor Substitution and Technical Progress in China’s Great Expansion”
Peter McAdam (European Central Bank)

10:25a.m. – 10:40a.m.

Discussant: Iikka Korhonen (Bank of Finland)

10:40a.m. – 11:20a.m.

Roundtable discussion

11:20a.m. – 11:35a.m.

Coffee Break

Session 4

Global Spillovers
Session Chair:
Stelios Makrydakis (European Central Bank)

11:35a.m. – 11:50a.m.

“From the Middle Kingdom to the United Kingdom: Spillovers from China”
Robert Gilhooly (Bank of England)

11:50a.m. – 12:05p.m.

“Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing”
Ricardo Correa (Federal Reserve Board)

12:05p.m. – 12:20p.m.

Discussant: Kun Mo (Bank of Canada)

12:20p.m. – 1:00p.m.

Roundtable discussion

1:00p.m. – 2:00p.m.

Conference Luncheon (By invitation)

Session 5

Local Government Debt
Session Chair:
Johannes Hoffmann (Deutsche Bundesbank)

2:00p.m. – 2:15p.m.

“Subnational Debt of China: The Politics-Finance Nexus”
Dragon Tang (University of Hong Kong)

2:15p.m. – 2:30p.m.

“China’s Rising Debt and Off-Budget Fiscal Activities: A Bottom-up Analysis”
Grace Li (International Monetary Fund)

2:30p.m. – 2:45p.m.

Discussant: Aleksandra Zdzienicka (International Monetary Fund)

2:45p.m. – 3:25p.m.

Roundtable discussion

3:25p.m. – 3:45p.m.

Coffee Break

3:45p.m. – 5:30p.m.

Panel Discussion - Issues on the Chinese Economy: A Market View
Panel Chair:
Gilles Noblet (European Central Bank)

Panel Speakers:
Becky Liu (Standard Chartered Bank)
Stephen Green (Capital Group)
Tao Wang (UBS Investment Bank)
Zhiwei Zhang (Deutsche Bank)

Q&A

- End -

05/11/2018 - 06/11/2018

14th Central Bank Conference on The Microstructure of Financial Markets

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

14th Central Bank Conference on The Microstructure of Financial Markets

Harbour Room, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, Central

05 November 2018 (Monday) - 06 November 2018 (Tuesday)

Programme

5 November 2018

8:45 – 9:00

Registration and welcome coffee

9:00 – 9:15

Welcome Remarks
Cho-hoi Hui, Head of Market Research, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

9:15 – 10:15

Keynote Speech: Does Financial Market Structure Impact the Cost of Raising Capital?”
Carole Comerton-Forde, University of New South Wales Business School

10:15 – 10:35

Coffee Break

10:35 – 12:15

Session 1 – OTC Markets
"OTC Premia"
Gino Cenedese, Fulcrum Ltd
Angelo Ranaldo, University of St Gallen *
Michalis Vasios, Bank of England

Discussant: Silvia Pezzini, HKMA

"Why Trade Over-the-Counter? When Investors Want Price Discrimination"
Tomy Lee, University of Toronto *
Chaojun Wang, The Wharton School

Discussant: Christine Parlour, University of California at Berkeley

Policy discussant: Sam Langfield, European Central Bank

12:15 – 13:30

Lunch (by invitation)

13:30 – 15:10

Session 2 – Treasury Bonds
"The Fire-sale Channels of Universal Banks in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis"
Giulio Bagattini, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Falko Fecth, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Patrick Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank *

Discussant: Dragon Tang, The University of Hong Kong

"The Role of Economists in Over-The-Counter Treasury Bond Markets"
Robert James, University of Sydney *
Elvis Jarnecic, University of Sydney
Henry Leung, University of Sydney

Discussant: Pasquale della Corte, Imperial College London

Policy discussant: Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

15:10 – 15:30

Coffee Break

15:30 – 17:50

Session 3 – FX Markets
"Retaining Alpha: the effect of trade size and rebalance strategy on FX returns"
Michael Melvin, University of California San Diego *
Wenqiang Pan, University of California San Diego
Petra Wilkstrom, BNP Paribas

Discussant: Dagfinn Rime, BI Norwegian Business School

"The Changing Nature of Price Discovery: Evidence from the FX market 2008-2015"
Alain Chaboud, Federal Reserve Board
Erik Hjalmarsson, University of Gothenburg
Filip Zikes, Federal Reserve Board *

Discussant: Bohui Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong - Shenzen

"Heterogeneous Information Content of Global FX Trading"
Angelo Ranaldo, University of St Gallen
Fabricius Somogyi, University of St Gallen *

Discussant: Paolo Vitale, University of Chieti-Pescara

Policy discussant: Catherine Koch, BIS

17:50

Conference adjourns

18:15

Conference Dinner (by invitation)

6 November 2018

8:45 – 9:00

Registration and welcome coffee

9:00 – 11:20

Session 1 – Cryptocurrencies
"Bitcoin Microstructure and the Kimchi premium"
Kyoung-Jin Choi, University of Calgary
Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary *
Ryan Stauffer, University of Calgary

Discussant: Erik Theissen, University of Mannheim

"De-mystifying Cryptocurrencies - Is Pricing Rational?"
Christoph Kaserer, Technical University of Munich *
Simon van Endern, Technical University of Munich

Discussant: Sophie Moinas, Toulouse School of Economics

"A high-frequency analysis of Bitcoin Liquidity"
Alexander Brauneis, University of Klagenfurt
Roland Mestel, University of Graz
Ryan Riordan, Queen’s University
Erik Theissen, University of Mannheim *

Discussant: Laurence Lescourret, ESSEC Business School

Policy discussant: Jonathan Chiu, Bank of Canada

11:20 – 11:40

Coffee Break

11:40 – 13:10

Panel Session: The Value of Information in an Environment with Big Data
Moderator:
Howard Lee, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Panelists:
Laura Brandimarte, University of Arizona
Larry Cao, CFA Institute Hong Kong
Bernard Yeung, National University of Singapore

13:10 – 14:25

Lunch (by invitation)

14:25 – 15:25

Keynote Speech: A Rigid Exchange Rate Regime in Flexible Financial Markets – Hong Kong Case
Cho-hoi Hui, Head of Market Research, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

15:25 – 15:45

Coffee Break

15:45 – 18:05

Session 2 – Liquidity
"Liquidity Supply and Demand in the Corporate Bond Market"
Jonathan Goldberg, Federal Reserve Board
Yoshio Nozawa, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology *

Discussant: James Brugler, Melbourne Business School

"Liquidity Risk and Funding Cost"
Alexander Bechtel, University of St Gallen *
Angelo Ranaldo, University of St Gallen
Jan Wrampelmeyer, VU Amsterdam

Discussant: Dan Li, Chinese University of Hong Kong - Shenzen

"Measuring funding illiquidity in the overnight loan market"
Derek Brito, Bank of Canada
Narayan Bulusu, Bank of Canada *

Discussant: Yesol Huh, Federal Reserve Board

Policy discussant: Yalin Gunduz, Deutsche Bundesbank

18:05

Concluding Remarks

* Presenter

18/01/2018 - 19/01/2018

The Ninth Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Institute of Market Economy of Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council and Financial Research Institute of The People's Bank of China (PBoC)

The Ninth Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy

“China’s Real Estate Market and Implications for Economic and Financial Stability”

18 January 2018 (Thursday) - 19 January 2018 (Friday)

Auditorium, 56/F, Two International Finance Centre, Central, Hong Kong

18 January 2018

08:30 – 09:00

Registration and Welcome Coffee

09:00 – 09:15

Welcoming Remarks

Norman TL Chan, Chief Executive, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

09:15 – 10:00

Keynote Speech

Guoqiang Long, Vice President, Development Research Center of the State Council

10:00 – 10:30

Coffee Break

10:30 – 12:30

Policy Forum: China’s Real Estate Market: Recent Development, Policy Options and Future Perspective

Chair:
Lillian Cheung, Executive Director, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Director, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Speakers:
Yiping Huang, Monetary Policy Committee Member, PBoC and Professor, Peking University

Zhong Xu, Director General, Research Bureau, PBoC

Wei Wang, Director General, Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Hong Qin, Director, Policy Research Center, Ministry of HURD P.R. China

Q&A

12:30 – 13:40

Conference Luncheon (by invitation)

13:40 – 15:50

Session 1: Understanding the Real Estate Market in China
Chair:
Matthew Yiu, Senior Economist, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Speakers:
Yongheng Deng, Professor, University of Wisconsin – Madison
[The People’s Housing Market: Evaluating Risk across Chinese Housing Markets]

Larry Hu, Head of China Economics, Macquarie Capital Limited
[Supply/Demand Mismatch: The Core Issue of China’s Property Market]

Hongyu Liu, Professor, Tsinghua University
[China Housing Market Development and Policy Outlook in the New Era]

Commentator:
Anna Wong, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Board

Q&A

speaker-yongheng_deng.pdf	speaker-hongyu_liu.pdf
commentator-anna_wong.pdf

15:50 – 16:20

Coffee Break

16:20 – 18:00

Session 2: China’s Real Estate Market and Its Interlinkage with the Real Economy
Chair:
Hongyi Chen, Senior Economist, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Speakers:
Wei Xiong, Professor, Princeton University
[A Tale of Three Channels: Real Estate Boom and Firm Investment in China]

Chen Lin, Professor, The University of Hong Kong
[Housing Market, Business Creation and Entrepreneurship]

Commentator:
Mali Chivakul, Senior Economist, European Central Bank

Q&A

speaker-wei_xiong.pdf	speaker-chen_lin.pdf
commentator-mali_chivakul.pdf

18:30

Conference Dinner (by invitation)

19 January 2018

8:30 - 9:00

Registration and Coffee

9:00 – 10:40

Session 3: China’s Real Estate Market and Financial Stability
Chair:
Muhong Niu, Director, Research Bureau, PBoC

Speakers:
Tao Zha, Executive Director, Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER) of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
[Fundamental versus Speculative Credit Booms? Anatomy of China’s Mortgage Market]

Daofu Chen, Vice Director-General, Research Institute of Finance, DRC
[Impacts of the Financialization of China’s Real Estate Market and Policy Solution]

Commentator:
Jeff Dawson, Research Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Q&A

speaker-tao_zha.pdf
commentator-jeff_dawson.pdf

10:40 – 11:10

Coffee Break

11:10 – 12:50

Session 4: Housing Prices and Its Implication for Long-term Economic Growth
Chair:
Yusong Deng, Deputy Director-General, Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Speakers:
Jun Nie, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
[China’s Real Estate Sector and the Macroeconomy: Transmission Mechanism and Risks]

Shouying Liu, Professor, Renmin University of China
[Say Goodbye to China’s Land Development Model]

Commentator:
Hunter Clark, Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Q&A

speaker-jun_nie1.pdf	speaker-shouying_liu.pdf
commentator-hunter_clark.pdf

12:50 – 14:00

Conference Luncheon (by invitation)

14:00 – 16:00

Panel Discussion: Housing Prices, Economic Growth and Financial Stability: A Market View

Chair:
Sally Chen, Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund Hong Kong SAR Sub-office

Speakers:
Tao Wang, Head of Asia Economics Research, UBS Investment Bank

Helen Qiao, Head of Asia Economics Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Zhiwei Zhang, Chief China Economist, Deutsche Bank

Haibin Zhu, Chief China Economist, J.P. Morgan

Q&A

16:00

Closing Remarks

- End -

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