| 28 November 2018 |
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| 8:30a.m. – 9:00a.m. |
Registration and Welcome Coffee
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| 9:00a.m. – 9:10a.m. |
Welcome Remarks
Lillian Cheung, Executive Director, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Director, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
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| 9:10a.m. – 10:00a.m. |
Keynote Speech: “An Unhealthy Trade Surplus?”
Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University
Q&A
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| 10:00a.m. – 10:20a.m. |
Coffee Break
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| Session 1 |
Capital Account and Exchange Rate Management
Session Chair:
Lillian Cheung, Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research
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| 10:20a.m. – 10:35a.m |
“China’s Evolving Managed Float: An Exploration of the Roles of the Fix and Broad Dollar Movements in Explaining Daily Exchange Rate Changes”
John Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
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| 10:35a.m. – 10:50a.m. |
“Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China”
Mark Spiegel (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
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| 10:50a.m. – 11:05a.m. |
“Market-based RMB Exchange Rate Reform As a Systematic Project”
Tao Guan (China Finance 40 Forum)
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| 11:05a.m. – 11:20a.m. |
Discussant: Anna Wong (Federal Reserve Board)
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| 11:20a.m. – 12:00n.n. |
Roundtable discussion
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| 12:00n.n. – 2:00p.m. |
Lunchtime Speech (By invitation)
“China's Prospects under Global Policy Normalization and Implications for Other EMEs”
by Shaghil Ahmed (Federal Reserve Board)
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| Session 2 |
Deleveraging and Financial Stability
Session Chair:
Anil Jain (Federal Reserve Board)
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| 2:00p.m. – 2:15p.m. |
“The Firm-Bank Nexus and Bank Lending in China?”
Madhusudan Mohanty (Bank for International Settlements)
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| 2:15p.m. – 2:30p.m. |
“The Credit Risk of Chinese Households – A Micro-Level Assessment”
Michael Funke (Hamburg University)
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| 2:30p.m. – 2:45p.m. |
“Are SOE Reforms in China Going Anywhere? Evidence from Corporate Borrowing Constraints”
John Fu (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
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| 2:45p.m. – 3:00p.m. |
Discussant: Hunter Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
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| 3:00p.m. – 3:40p.m. |
Roundtable discussion
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| 3:40p.m. – 4:00p.m. |
Coffee Break
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| 4:00p.m. – 5:45p.m. |
Panel Discussion: US - China Trade Relation
Panel Chair:
Jasper Hoek (Federal Reserve Board)
Panel Discussants:
Yiping Huang (Peking University)
Brad Setser (Council on Foreign Relations)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Bruegel)
Q&A
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| 6:15p.m. |
Conference Dinner (By invitation)
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| 29 November 2018 |
|
| 8:30a.m. – 8:45a.m. |
Registration and Welcome Coffee
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| 8:45a.m. – 9:25a.m. |
Keynote Speech: “China’s Economy towards High-Quality Development: Long term trend and policy implications”
Zhong Xu, The People’s Bank of China
Q&A
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| 9:25a.m. – 9:40a.m. |
Coffee Break
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| Session 3 |
Long-term Growth and Rebalancing
Session Chair:
Ivan Roberts (Reserve Bank of Australia)
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| 9:40a.m. – 9:55a.m. |
“Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China”
Sophia Chen (International Monetary Fund)
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| 9:55a.m. – 10:10a.m. |
“What Drives China's Growth? Evidence from Micro-level Data”
Shunichi Yoneyama (Bank of Japan)
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| 10:10a.m. – 10:25a.m. |
“The Role of Factor Substitution and Technical Progress in China’s Great Expansion”
Peter McAdam (European Central Bank)
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| 10:25a.m. – 10:40a.m. |
Discussant: Iikka Korhonen (Bank of Finland)
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| 10:40a.m. – 11:20a.m. |
Roundtable discussion
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| 11:20a.m. – 11:35a.m. |
Coffee Break
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| Session 4 |
Global Spillovers
Session Chair:
Stelios Makrydakis (European Central Bank)
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| 11:35a.m. – 11:50a.m. |
“From the Middle Kingdom to the United Kingdom: Spillovers from China”
Robert Gilhooly (Bank of England)
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| 11:50a.m. – 12:05p.m. |
“Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing”
Ricardo Correa (Federal Reserve Board)
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| 12:05p.m. – 12:20p.m. |
Discussant: Kun Mo (Bank of Canada)
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| 12:20p.m. – 1:00p.m. |
Roundtable discussion
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| 1:00p.m. – 2:00p.m. |
Conference Luncheon (By invitation)
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| Session 5 |
Local Government Debt
Session Chair:
Johannes Hoffmann (Deutsche Bundesbank)
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| 2:00p.m. – 2:15p.m. |
“Subnational Debt of China: The Politics-Finance Nexus”
Dragon Tang (University of Hong Kong)
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| 2:15p.m. – 2:30p.m. |
“China’s Rising Debt and Off-Budget Fiscal Activities: A Bottom-up Analysis”
Grace Li (International Monetary Fund)
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| 2:30p.m. – 2:45p.m. |
Discussant: Aleksandra Zdzienicka (International Monetary Fund)
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| 2:45p.m. – 3:25p.m. |
Roundtable discussion
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| 3:25p.m. – 3:45p.m. |
Coffee Break
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| 3:45p.m. – 5:30p.m. |
Panel Discussion - Issues on the Chinese Economy: A Market View
Panel Chair:
Gilles Noblet (European Central Bank)
Panel Speakers:
Becky Liu (Standard Chartered Bank)
Stephen Green (Capital Group)
Tao Wang (UBS Investment Bank)
Zhiwei Zhang (Deutsche Bank)
Q&A
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- End -
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