Distinguished Speakers Series – Andreas Dombret, Global Senior Advisor of Oliver Wyman
2 February 2024
Dr. Andreas Dombret, Global Senior Advisor of Oliver Wyman and former member of the Executive Board of Deutsche Bundesbank, kick-started the first seminar under the Distinguished Speakers Series in 2024.
During the seminar moderated by Authur Yuen, Deputy Chief Executive of Hong Kong Monetary Authority and AoF’s Deputy Chairman, Dr. Dombret shared his views on what he termed the “Three I’s – Invasion, Inflation, and Interest rates” with around 80 AoF Members and friends.
He began with the Russian-Ukraine conflict, noting it is a contained regional conflict but with global economic implications. It happens at a time when the world is at a clear turning point away from multilateralism towards an emerging new multipolar world order. He expects this shift to lead to greater friend-shoring and fragmentation, and to centre around three groups of economies: US/EU and associates like South Korea, Australia as well as Switzerland, Russia/China and associates, and a group of ‘neutrals’ that include India, Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. In this emerging multipolar world, Dombret stressed that countries will need to find new formats and platforms of meaningful engagement on global issues.
Dr. Dombret then touched upon recent developments around inflation and interest rates. In the near-term, he thought market expectations of monetary policy rate cuts by major central banks as being too optimistic. Instead, interest rates in the major markets are likely to stay high for a bit longer, reflecting both uncertainties around the wage-price spiral and the direction of energy prices, and the importance of price stability for central bank credibility. Longer-term, Dr. Dombret expects reduced globalisation to have inflationary implications.
Dr. Dombret’s speech on the Three I’s was followed by a lively Q&A with the audience, where there was an exchange of views on a number of topical issues against a broader backdrop of ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty. This included the limitation of central bank models in capturing ‘black swan’ events (e.g. pandemics and military conflicts); the importance for countries to find common ground on the environmental and social aspects of climate change; and the need for both governments and central banks to prepare and adapt to the shift to a new multipolar world.
A Chinese New Year gathering was held back-to-back with the seminar where the participants caught up with each other.
(From left to right) Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Chairman of the Hong Kong Academy of Finance; Andreas Dombret, Global Senior Advisor of Oliver Wyman; and Arthur Yuen, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Deputy Chairman of the Hong Kong Academy of Finance
Last revision date: 7 February 2024